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| Housing slowdown means fewer new residents |
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| Written by Jonathan Partridge / Patterson Irrigator / | |
| Wednesday, 14 May 2008 | |
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The numbers are in: Patterson is now home to 21,229 people, just 2.2 percent more than last year. After years of explosive growth — as much as 19 percent, between 2005 and 2006 — that slowdown and the feeble housing market mean many planned homes are going unbuilt. Two years ago, Patterson was the third-fastest growing city in the state. These days, it barely makes the top 100. The state Department of Finance announced this month that Patterson’s population was an estimated 21,229 as of Jan. 1, a 2.2 percent increase from the 20,384 population tally in January 2007.  Not yet: Empty lots in the Patterson Gardens subdivision await buildout. Work has slowed, but not stopped, with the cooling housing market. Photo by Elias Funez/Patterson Irrigator “The shift in growth has definitely flattened out for the Central Valley in general,” said John Malson, the state finance department’s research manager in charge of city population estimates. At the height of Patterson’s growth spurt, the city’s population skyrocketed 19 percent in a year, jumping from 16,187 to 19,269 between 2005 and 2006. But the real estate market experienced a major slowdown last year, with plummeting prices and a slew of foreclosures. It all translated into a slowdown in city growth. The city of Patterson’s building department recorded 33 permits issued for single-family homes in 2007, compared with 308 in 2006. “The market changes; it’s like everything else,” said Mary Ann Arendsee, broker and co-owner of Realty World — Scheuber and Arendsee Properties. “Sometimes it goes up, sometimes it goes down. It cycles about every 10 years.” Arendsee said some people with negative amortization loans saw their housing payments surge, leading to many of the foreclosures that occurred. Negative amortization means the borrower pays less each month than is owed in interest, so the total amount owed increases rather than decreases over time. Peter Kovacs, managing partner for Guild Mortgage, said Patterson was particularly vulnerable because it had a relatively high percentage of speculative buyers, a high number of homes for sale in new developments and a large volume of homes bought with sub-prime loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. Patterson’s population actually may vary from the state estimate, as the state only takes into account housing stock for city population estimates, not foreclosures and other housing market indicators. While city officials do not expect the slowdown in growth to have much of an impact on Patterson’s budget, a massive decline in property value within the past year could be another story.  The slowdown and the feeble housing market mean many planned homes are going unbuilt, creating scenes like the Patterson Gardens house above, surrounded by empty lots. Photo by Elias Funez/Patterson Irrigator The county expects 35,000 to 40,000 property owners to have their properties devalued to lower their property taxes, said Don Oppman, assistant assessor of administration. To cope with that shortage — and less money from the state — the county is considering a 3 percent cut in funding for all departments. The consequences for Patterson’s city coffers are unknown, as it has yet to receive data from the county auditor-controller. “We’re waiting with bated breath,” said Margaret Souza, finance director for the city of Patterson. Some retailers could be deterred by Patterson’s slower rate of growth, leading to lower sales tax revenues than would be possible with more growth. However, Souza said that is difficult to predict. “You’re talking philosophical,” she said. Despite the struggles of the housing market, a few Central Valley cities continued to experience extensive growth. Malson of the state finance department said that may be because of projects that already were in motion from the previous year. The city of San Joaquin in Fresno County had the highest growth rate, climbing 17.4 percent to 4,521, and California City in Kern County was No. 3, with a 9.6 percent rate. Lathrop, in nearby San Joaquin County, was the sixth fastest-growing city in the state in terms of percentage change. It is now home to 17,429 people. Overall, California’s population climbed to about 38.05 million, up about 490,000 from January 2007, maintaining about the same rate of growth as the previous year. Though the state’s housing rate is in decline, Malson said California traditionally has a high birth rate, and immigration is immune to economic factors. Compared with Patterson’s 2.2 percent growth, Stanislaus County’s population grew by 1.3 percent during the past year, rising from 518,938 to 525,903. Oakdale had the highest rate of growth in the county in terms of percentage change, climbing 4.3 percent from 2007 to 19,337, followed by Newman with a 3.2 percent climb to 10,586. To reach Jonathan Partridge at the Irrigator, call 892-6187 or e-mail him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
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